When to build: timing is part of taste
The right product a few years early looks exactly like the wrong product. Asking "why now?" is not a formality.
Part of our series on taste and shipping fast.
Good products are often ideas that failed before. Online grocery, video calls, tablets: each had a famous version that came too early. The idea was fine. The world was not ready, or the costs were wrong, or people's habits hadn't moved yet.
Timing is the part of taste that is easiest to skip, because it can't be prototyped. You can build the product in a weekend. You can't build the moment. In CB Insights' study of 431 shut-down startups, bad timing or market conditions were named in 29% of the cases with a known cause.
Questions that test timing
What changed? A new technology, a new rule, a new price, a new habit. If nothing changed, ask why nobody has done this already.
Who is already trying? People patching the problem with spreadsheets and scripts are the best sign that the need is real and current.
Is the cost falling? Many good businesses ride a cost that drops every year. Building on one that is rising is uphill.
Will it be obvious in two years? If so, you are on time. If it is obvious today, you may be late, and speed alone won't save you when everyone has the same tools.
AI changes the timing game
Because anyone can ship a first version quickly, the window between "possible" and "crowded" is shorter than it used to be. Being first matters less than being right about the moment and then staying close enough to your users to keep being right.
When you can build anything at any time, the question shifts from "can we?" to "should we, and should we now?"